We’re doing some social media monitoring for a client who had never done anything in the space before so they had no benchmarks to work from. We didn’t know what a ‘normal’ level of buzz would be and because Twitter data doesn’t go back more than a couple of weeks there was no reliable way to backtrack. I figured the best thing to do was figure out how many active Twitter users there are in Australia and then look at how many of those would be likely to tweet about our client on any given day.

Here’s my working out (bit like a high school maths test really, I sucked at those though). The results are quite important I think, and could be applied to any business:

• There are about 17,000,000 Internet users in Australia (source: Internet World Stats)
• Of those, 13% actively updated their Twitter account (ie. ‘Tweeted’) in 2009 (source: Nielsen 2010 Social Media Report)
• Which is 2.2 million twitter users in Australia (not visitors, USERS, the distinction is very important as not every visitor to Twitter has an account)
• But of all Twitter users, about 50% don’t really update their account very often (source: HubSpot)
• So that’s about 1.1 million Australians actively using Twitter
• There is a widely accepted rule that 1% of any online community will actively contribute to it with gusto and another 9% are likely to contribute from time to time. (source: Jakob Nielsen - he is one of the world’s most respected web usability consultants).
• As Jakob Nielsen writes: “1% of users participate a lot and account for most contributions: it can seem as if they don’t have lives because they often post just minutes after whatever event they’re commenting on occurs.
• 9% of users contribute from time to time, but other priorities dominate their time.”
• Based on that estimate, there are about 11,000 Australian Twitter users who would be highly likely to update their status to mention any given brand if they had an experience worth mentioning. They’re the same sort of people who would, by nature, actively contribute to other forums as well. As a proportion of the Australian population, that’s  0.04%
• It’s also likely that there are 99,000 Australian Twitter users who would be somewhat likely to update their status to mention any given brand if they had an experience worth mentioning. As a proportion of the Australian population, that’s  0.43%.

So how can you use those figures to benchmark your business? Easy - work out how many products you sell (or services you deliver) over any given time period and you could expect that 0.04% of that figure will mention you and 0.43% of that figure might mention you in Twitter, or on their favourite social network of choice.

Try it, see if it works, I’d be keen to know!

According to data released by ComScore this month, 800,000 Australians visited the Twitter website in June. Most of them had less than 10 followers and many had no followers at all, but regardless, 800,000 is a big number. It’s about 4% of our population, which makes it a critical mass. Twitter is here. It’s going to stay. It’s not a fad any more and, as of three months ago, its popularity was growing at a rate of 6000% per annum. Look at the chart of Twitter growth compared to Facebook growth and you’ll get the picture:

But just how popular are Facebook and Twitter going to get?

Twitter’s growth-rate of 6000% is, of course, completely unsustainable. If the site kept growing at that rate the entire population of Australia would be on the site by Christmas. That isn’t going to happen. Twitter is currently in the middle of the biggest growth spurt it’s ever going to have and basing predictions on the current rate would be pointless.

What we do know is that 6 million Australians now use (or at least spy on their grandkids using) Facebook and that figure is about double what it was last year. Twitter will never be as popular with the general population as Facebook because it’s nowhere near as handy for stalking potential bed-fellows, spying on your teenage children or organising parties. For that reason, Facebook seems likely to remain the social network of choice for those interested in, well, socially networking. Which is pretty much everyone.

MySpace, let’s face it, is like a virtual shopping mall where awkward teenagers congregate after the movie has finished and before they’ve found someone to pash. MySpace should have used its momentum, when it had some, to become an entertainment network. It could have rivalled YouTube, but it was being run by old media folks who were too scared of being sued, too worried about pissing off advertisers, and didn’t understand that everything is now free. Watch those same old-media folks push News Corp into the grave by charging for online content.

For that reason, Facebook, in my humble opinion, will continue to dominate. And when an organisation dominates online, when a website becomes the market leader, all the other players fall by the wayside. Look at Google — Microsoft can’t even claw 5% market share and they own the fricking operating system AND the most popular web browser. Amazon is killing the competition, Seek.com.au rules jobs, eBay stands alone (except in New Zealand, where TradeMe stands alone). Facebook is in exactly the same position. Facebook will continue to grow because its market share is now so great it will be too inconvenient for people to go elsewhere. At least for the next few years. Look at the following Google Trends chart if you don’t believe me. The blue line is MySpace, the red one is Facebook. The blue line is actually going down pretty steeply, it’s just not going up as steeply as the red one:

Google Trends: MySpace vs. Facebook

My prediction is that Facebook will peak in 2010, by which time it will have around half the Australian population as regular visitors: 10,000,000 unique visitors a month. It will level out from there and most likely decline if the next big thing comes along. And keep in mind, that may not happen. There has, so far, been no ‘next’ Google. Fads replace fads, but useful tools just stick around. (Remember when people thought the Internet was a fad?)

Geocities was ‘the next big thing’. MySpace was ‘the next big thing’. Blogs were ‘the next big thing for business.’ But they all fell by the wayside because something better came along. MySpace replaced personal website building tools like Geocities because it was easier and it connected people. Facebook replaced MySpace because it had better tools, did a much better job of connecting people and was so simple even your parents could use it (damnit). Twitter replaced blogs for business because blogs were hard work. Blogs took time, effort, and they’re long. Twitter is quick, easy and short. Any business owner with a computer can setup a Twitter account and even an illiterate monkey can keep it updated.

People will soon get sick of Tweeting among their friends because it’s too limiting. It’s no secret that I’m not a big Twitter fan and I prefer Tumblr, but for businesses, Twitter is the ultimate communication channel. Dell have made $3 million from retail offers on Twitter and Starbucks use it as an EDM solution. It’s a complete no-brainer. Every business should be on Twitter right now. Even if they just use it as a news feed.

Where will Twitter go from here? It’s hard to say. The model is flawed, all they’re doing is providing an easy-to-use news feed. They have zero competitive advantage and no real USP. All they have is a brand; a cute little blue bird; but the brand has the equity of an eagle. My prediction is that within two years 70% of Australian businesses with a website will also be on Twitter. There’ll be around 3 million account holders, but more importantly, I think Twitter is going to have more unique visitors than Facebook, just. By 2011 you won’t be able to interact with an Australian business without coming into contact with their Twitter feed. I’m calling it 10,000,001 unique users a month.

What do you think?

I just made this for a pitch presentation and thought I’d share. It’s staggering.

I just published a quick post on Twitter’s new ‘Twitter 101 for Business Guide‘ but I thought I’d make special mention of their measuring advice - this is straight from the website in the best practices section. It’s quite good:

Before you set up measurement tools, focus on the quality of your engagement, and use your gut to check how things are going. How’s the feedback and interaction with your followers? Are you responding to most or your @messages? Are most tweets about you positive? Or if they started out largely negative, are they coming around? Are more people beginning to engage with you and mention your company?

Next, think about quantifying your experience. Although it can be tricky to add up the value of relationships, Twitter does lend itself to measurement in a few ways—especially if you’ve already defined what you hope will be different for your company in three months, six months or a year if you succeed on Twitter. Tactics like these can then help you assess your progress in meeting that goal:

• Keep a tally of questions answered, customer problems resolved and positive exchanges held on Twitter. Do the percentages change over time?
• When you offer deals via Twitter, use a unique coupon code so that you can tell how many people take you up on that Twitter-based promotion. If you have an online presence, you can also set up a landing page for a promotion, to track not only click-throughs but further behavior and conversions.
• Use third-party tools to figure out how much traffic your websites are receiving from Twitter.
• Track click-throughs on any link you post in a tweet. Some URL shortening services let you track click-throughs.

I’ve been writing posts along these lines for the last year and every day it seems another entrepreneurial web design/marketing/social media/pr/advertising/research firm is holding a seminar/webinar/conference/hoedown/stadium tour on how to use Twitter for business, but at last, the Twitts themselves have released their own version. Twitter 101 for Business has just been launched on the Twitter website and by golly gosh, it’s handy. Topics include:

• What is Twitter?
• Getting Started
• Learn the Lingo
• Best Practices
• Case Studies
• Other Resources

There’s even a series of slides you can download to show your boss. Neato!

It’s the best thing since Google released their expanded webmaster guidelines a couple of years ago (a must read if you haven’t brushed up in a while).

I gave up Twitter this morning. I deleted my account. I no longer exist in the Twittersphere. I feel free.

Going cold turkey was hard, but it’s for the best. There are better, less annoying, more fun ways to network, share links and spout wisdom. I’m going to use those instead. RSS was invented so people could broadcast information to subscribers. I’m sick of letting Twitter own my conversations when I have my own channels.

I’m sick of trying to extract virtue from 140-character snippets of people’s lives. I’m sick of feeling like I have to follow someone or they’ll think I don’t value their opinion. I’m sick of people following me just so I’ll follow them.

I’m sick of brands using Twitter as an indication of what I think of them. I’m sick of companies thinking they can interrupt my conversations and engage me just because I mention their product. If they really did care, they’d treat me like a friend. They’d ask me before there was a problem and make a serious attempt to find out what I want. They’d value my time more than they valued theirs. Twitter lets them eavesdrop and lets them go to sleep at night believing they actually give a shit. I refuse to let them have it that easy.

I’m sick of wasting time. I’m sick of the overload. I’m sick of missing the beautiful trees because the forest got in the way.

I’m sick of trying to be the first, the smartest, the coolest, the most popular. I’m sick of everyone else trying to be the first, the smartest, the coolest, the most popular.

I’m sick of Twitter. And I feel much better without it. Give it up, even for just a week. I guarantee you’ll feel better too.

How many people do you follow on Twitter?

a) What’s Twitter?

b) None

c) I don’t know, about 20

d) More than about 20

If you answered a, you won’t be interested in this post. Stop reading and go do something useful with your afternoon. If you answered b, well done. I wish I was more like you, but I’m a social media marketing strategist and I’d look dangerously ignorant (or arrogant) if I wasn’t using Twitter. If you answered c, you’re like me, that ain’t so bad, but you still need to get a life. If you answered d, you were either teased a lot in high school and are trying to compensate somehow, or you’re a politician. Either way, you’re being silly.

As a communication tool, Twitter is next to useless, as my friend Kate points out quite succinctly. No one really gives a flying fuck about what you are doing every second of the day, not even your mum. Tell your mum what Twitter is, explain the stupid shit you talk about and then enquire politely if she’d be interested in following you. She won’t. She’ll tell you you’re stupid. Go home from work this afternoon and tell your girlfriend/boyfriend/husband/wife/partner/dog/teddy bear/flatmate/secret friend/pet rock as much about your day as you told the 200 random nobodys who follow you on Twitter and they’ll be reaching for the TV remote before you can say “mmm, morning coffee, how good is caffeine” or “yay, friday… finishing up report for accounts dept. then I’m outta here, woo-hoo”.

Twitter is a stupid, useless, annoying fad and I wish it would die, BUT. As a zeitgeist of brand sentiment - as a snapshot of the dialogue taking place around your brand, Twitter Search is the greatest thing since Google Trends. It is a direct line into the mundane, mind-numbing every-day subconscious of your customers. Corporations and Politicians should forget about trying to use it to communicate - you can’t build lasting, meaningful relationships with Twitter, but you can use it to tap into the bubbling brook that feeds the underground water table of social conversation (at least at the tech-savvy, early-adopter end of town).

If only it was this good…

Twitter is a free social networking and micro-blogging service that allows users to send and read short text updates (otherwise known as tweets) about what they’re thinking or doing. Its been around for a while (a couple of years is a long while in Internetland) and all the ‘cool’ companies are doing it.

Is it a fad? Is it going to last? Will we look back in a few years time and laugh about how in 2008 everyone just HAD to have a company Twitter and realise in hindsight how pointless it all was? I’m guessing yes (at least partly), but smarter people than me can help you make a more enlightened decision; read Jeremiah Owyang’s rundown on Twitter if you’re after a succinct overview.

There’s no doubt that engaging with your customers is the best way to build profitable relationships, but if you’re after a help centre, check out Get Satisfaction instead, because Twitter really isn’t designed as a company-wide customer service tool.

On the other hand, if you have intelligent, web-savvy employees, putting their Twitter feeds on the company website is a great idea, it gives customers and clients a unique insight into the day-to-day lives of the people who help them. I think more CEOs should do it and I’m fascinated by Barack Obama’s Twitter feed, although he uses it more as an events alert system than an insight into his thought process.

There’s no right or wrong answer to the question of company twittering, but like anything, if you do it half-arsed, or don’t do it right, you’ll look stupid. If you reckon it’s worth a shot, have a go, but keep in mind the whole world will be watching. Know what you want to achieve first and check out plenty of other company Tweets to see who is doing it well and who isn’t.